Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 April 2023

Market Insights 18/04/2023


Yet another ‘non moving’ day in the markets yesterday as the session closed almost exactly level to the previous settlement across the board.

The latest long term (and constantly changing) temperature forecast now shows a dip below seasonal normal to be expected later this week, rather than a warm spell. Across May the average temperatures now appear to stay just below seasonal normal throughout the month.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €41.13 (from €41.15) and the NBP May contract at 98.76p (from 98.46p).

Njord on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 311mcm from Norway (306). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.0) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (40.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.55% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €42, Winter €56 (vs €41 and €56)
Curve NBP May 99p, Winter 147p (vs 98p and 148p)
UK Gas NBP spot 101p (from 104p).
UK Power DA £102 (from £109).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £103 (£103) and Winter at £157 (£158).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($86) and EUAs are at €93 (€94). Henry Hub is at $2.28 ($2.11) and JKM is at $12.49 ($12.68) with TTF Equiv of $13.17 ($13.26).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.