Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 April 2023

Market Insights 17/04/2023


Markets ended the week on a calm note, holding very much level to the previous days sessions.

Finland started regular output from Europes largest nuclear power plant at the weekend after 18 years since it began construction in 2005 and is expected to produce around 14% of the countrys electricity. This comes as Germany switches off its last three nuclear reactors and Sweden, France the UK look to increase nuclear energy production in the years ahead.

The G7 at the weekend announced big targets for solar and offshore wind capacity in a drive to push for renewable energy development and phase out fossil fuels more quickly.

The temperature outlook for the UK continues to change, with the latest view removing the ‘heatwave’ forecast for later this week. We now see a continuation of seasonal normal, or just below it for the remainder of the month, and into May.

Friday saw the TTF May contract settle at €41.15 (from €42.09) and the NBP May contract at 98.46p (from 99.88p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 306mcm from Norway (329). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.0mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 40.8mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €42, Winter €56 (vs €41 and €57)
Curve NBP May 98p, Winter 148p (vs 100p and 148p)
UK Gas NBP spot 104p (from 98p).
UK Power DA £109 (from £117).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £103 (£103) and Winter at £158 (£159).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($86) and EUAs are at €94 (€94). Henry Hub is at $2.11 ($2.01) and JKM is at $12.68 ($12.61) with TTF Equiv of $13.26 ($13.66).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.