Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 April 2023

Market Insights 14/04/2023


A continuation of a calm market yesterday – in stark contrast to the extreme volatility the markets were in around this time last year.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show May to be at seasonal normal, however the near term picture has changed slightly with the ‘heatwave’ expected early next week pushed back a few days towards the end of next week.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €42.09 (from €42.88) and the NBP May contract at 99.88p (from 100.80p).

Aasta Hansteen on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 329mcm from Norway (337). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.8) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.06% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €42, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €42, Winter €57 (vs €42 and €57)
Curve NBP May 100p, Winter 148p (vs 101p and 150p)
UK Gas NBP spot 98p (from 104p).
UK Power DA £117 (from £112).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £103 (£106) and Winter at £159 (£160).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €94 (€96). Henry Hub is at $2.01 ($2.09) and JKM is at $12.61 ($12.63) with TTF Equiv of $13.66 ($13.81).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.