Market Insight
Tony Jordan
12 April 2023

Market Insights 12/04/2023


A slight uptick in near term contracts yesterday, with slightly greater increases on the longer term contracts seen in yesterdays session.

Ongoing French strikes continue to disrupt the country, including the maintenance plans for the nuclear fleet.

Despite the loss of Russian gas this year, imports of Russian LNG continue into Europe and of course LNG is the key to refilling storages this summer ahead of the next winter season. The EU is currently in a dilemma as to whether it legislates on the ban of importing Russian fossil fuels, including LNG. Such a move would likely create some (at least short term) renewed instability in the energy markets. Belgium, France and Spain have increased their imports of Russian LNG this past year, whilst others such as the UK have decreased – instead turning to US LNG.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €43.69 (from €43.13) and the NBP May contract at 102.63p (from 102.31p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 318mcm from Norway (336). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (35.0) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (40.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.83% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €44, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €44, Winter €57 (vs €44 and €55)
Curve NBP May 102p, Winter 148p (vs 102p and 143p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 94p).
UK Power DA £91 (from £82).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £106 (£106) and Winter at £162 (£157).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($84) and EUAs are at €97 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.19 ($2.17) and JKM is at $12.57 ($12.63) with TTF Equiv of $13.99 ($13.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.