Market Insight
Tony Jordan
11 April 2023

Market Insights 11/04/2023


A bearish end to the short week last week ahead of the long Easter weekend which saw the markets closed.

Prices have held close to £1/therm or €40/MWh in recent weeks for near term delivery and eyes are now on how quickly storages can be refilled ahead of next winter – the first injection season without a constant flow of Russian pipeline gas. LNG deliveries will be key to this in order to keep the winter contract in a similar stable state.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show a seasonal normal May, but not before we have a few cold days this week and then a warm week next week.

Thursday saw the TTF May contract settle at €43.13 (from €44.58) and the NBP May contract at 102.31p (from 106.64p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm from Norway (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.0mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 40.0mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.55% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €42, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €42, Winter €55 (vs €43 and €57)
Curve NBP May 102p, Winter 143p (vs 107p and 148p)
UK Gas NBP spot 94p (from 100p).
UK Power DA £82 (from £115).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £106 (£115) and Winter at £157 (£165).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($85) and EUAs are at €97 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.17 ($2.16) and JKM is at $12.63 ($12.68) with TTF Equiv of $13.79 ($14.29).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.