Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 April 2023

Market Insights 05/04/2023


A bearish session yesterday, unwinding much of the gains seen from Mondays session.

The US and EU met in Brussels for an energy summit in which they reaffirmed the intent to combat any disruption to energy markets having last met early last year, just prior to the conflict in Ukraine. Since then Europe has quickly weaned itself from Russian pipeline gas and looked towards US LNG as a replacement.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €46.57 (from €51.37) and the NBP May contract at 114.86p (from 128.27p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm from Norway (342). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.72% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €45, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €45, Winter €60 (vs €47 and €63)
Curve NBP May 115p, Winter 155p (vs 128p and 165p)
UK Gas NBP spot 105p (from 122p).
UK Power DA £125 (from £121).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £121 (£121) and Winter at £174 (£176).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €95 (€96). Henry Hub is at $2.11 ($2.10) and JKM is at $13.16 ($12.75) with TTF Equiv of $14.97 ($16.42).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.