Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 April 2023

Market Insights 04/04/2023


A bullish session again yesterday across the board with oil prices rising on the back of the OPEC+ production cut announcement at the weekend. Gas and power prices followed the trend and the delta between European and Asian LNG prices show a bigger gap.

The latest temperature forecasts show a cold few days to be expected followed by a warmer rest of April, a slight dip again (below seasonal normal) towards the end of the month and for May to be around seasonal normal.

Interestingly Reuters reports that insurance cover for Nord Stream AG has been renewed by its insurers Allianz and Munich Re – perhaps giving some long term hope that the pipeline may one day be repaired and back in operation. The outcome of the investigation as to who is responsible for the attack on the pipeline is still ongoing.

Yesterday saw the TTF May contract settle at €51.37 (from €47.83) and the NBP May contract at 128.27p (from 118.03p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 342mcm from Norway (344). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (34.7) and Sudzha at 41.7mcm (39.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.71% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €51, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €51, Winter €63 (vs €51 and €58)
Curve NBP May 128p, Winter 165p (vs 118p and 152p)
UK Gas NBP spot 122p (from 103p).
UK Power DA £121 (from £113).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £121 (£116) and Winter at £176 (£159).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($80) and EUAs are at €96 (€92). Henry Hub is at $2.10 ($2.22) and JKM is at $12.75 ($13.52) with TTF Equiv of $16.42 ($15.25).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.