Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 April 2023

Market Insights 03/04/2023


Fridays sessions saw the week close out in bullish style as markets showed upside across the board.

On Friday the European Commission announced it would extend its gas price cap to all European trading hubs from 1st May.

On Sunday the OPEC+ group made a surprise announcement to cut oil production from May until the end of the year in order to ‘stabilise prices’ in response to the potential banking crisis, despite Brent holding around $80/bbl in recent weeks. Early trading already showing some upside this morning with some analysts suggesting we could see a move towards $100 as a result of the cuts.

Friday saw the TTF May contract settle at €47.83 (from €43.58) and the NBP May contract at 118.03p (from 108.10p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm from Norway (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 34.7mcm (37.0) and Sudzha at 39.4mcm (41.7). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.65% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the May TTF contract at €48, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF May €48, Winter €58 (vs €48 and €54)
Curve NBP May 118p, Winter 152p (vs 108p and 141p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 103p).
UK Power DA £113 (from £110).

UK power prices show the UK May Baseload contract at £116 (£117) and Winter at £159 (£162).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($79) and EUAs are at €92 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.22 ($2.10) and JKM is at $13.52 ($12.70) with TTF Equiv of $15.25 ($13.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.