Market Insight
Tony Jordan
29 March 2023

Market Insights 29/03/2023


Yesterday markets moved from a bearish open before bulls took control pushing markets up around 5% before they settled not too far above where they started.

A low outlook for LNG cargoes, particularly in the UK in recent days, will drive some of the concern as we look to rely on LNG to replace the lost Russian pipeline gas through Nord Stream AG to refill storages this summer.

Russia continue to put pressure on an open and transparent investigation into the pipeline blasts last September, after failing to obtain support from the UN Security Council for an independent inquiry earlier this week.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.75 (from €42.53) and the NBP April contract at 105.88p (from 104.75p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 341mcm from Norway (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.89% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €43, Summer €43 (vs €43 and €43)
Curve NBP April 106p, Summer 108p (vs 105p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 106p (from 100p).
UK Power DA £107 (from £113).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £111 (£110) and Summer at £117 (£116).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €89 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.03 ($2.09) and JKM is at $12.51 ($12.53) with TTF Equiv of $13.59 ($13.45).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.