Market Insight
Tony Jordan
28 March 2023

Market Insights 28/03/2023


A calm start to the week with markets showing a small uptick in price levels.

Temperature forecasts remain largely unchanged with a slightly below seasonal normal expected for April. LNG flows to the UK have dropped in recent days with just five cargoes expected in the coming days, where throughout the past month this has stayed into double digits.

Russia have stated they intend to find the state (or states) responsible for the Nord Steam pipeline attack and may demand compensation from those responsible whilst they continue to insist on an open and transparent investigation and avoid a ‘Western cover up’.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.53 (from €41.09) and the NBP April contract at 104.75p (from 100.71p).

Troll remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm from Norway (331). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (35.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (40.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €42, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €42, Summer €43 (vs €43 and €42)
Curve NBP April 105p, Summer 107p (vs 101p and 105p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 111p).
UK Power DA £113 (from £112).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £110 (£108) and Summer at £116 (£114).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($75) and EUAs are at €87 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.09 ($2.22) and JKM is at $12.53 ($12.70) with TTF Equiv of $13.45 ($12.96).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.