Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 March 2023

Market Insights 27/03/2023


The week ended on a bearish note, continuing to stay close to the £1/€40 markers for the upcoming delivery contracts.

This is despite the temperature forecasts to remain largely unchanged for the coming weeks to those of late last week.

As the Nord Stream explosion investigations continue, Danish investigators have asked Nord Stream 2 AG to help identify an unidentified object found near to the blast site of one of the pipelines. Russia have taken this has as a positive step as they continue to request an open and transparent investigation.

Friday saw the TTF April contract settle at €41.09 (from €43.19) and the NBP April contract at 100.71p (from 106.54p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm from Norway (326). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.2mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 40.0mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.04% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €42, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €42, Summer €42 (vs €41 and €44)
Curve NBP April 101p, Summer 105p (vs 107p and 110p)
UK Gas NBP spot 111p (from 107p).
UK Power DA £112 (from £89).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £108 (£106) and Summer at £114 (£115).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($76) and EUAs are at €88 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.22 ($2.15) and JKM is at $12.70 ($13.34) with TTF Equiv of $12.96 ($13.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.