Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 March 2023

Market Insights 22/03/2023


A reversal yesterday after a couple of concurrent bearish sessions of late, however prices are still holding close to €40 and £1 on the TTF and NBP respectively after breaking lower than these psychological levels on Monday.

No real change to the overall outlook with storage clearly starting to turn to injection mode as we head to the end of the winter delivery period and around 55% looking to be the seasons low point leaving less to fill over the summer months which, compared to last year, can be done at a fraction of the cost at current price levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.40 (from €39.33) and the NBP April contract at 103.37p (from 94.28p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm from Norway (332). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.0mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.64% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €41, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €41, Summer €43 (vs €42 and €40)
Curve NBP April 103p, Summer 108p (vs 94p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 103p (from 97p).
UK Power DA £79 (from £101).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £105 (£104) and Summer at £115 (£112).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €90 (€88). Henry Hub is at $2.35 ($2.22) and JKM is at $13.65 ($13.16) with TTF Equiv of $13.39 ($12.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.