Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 March 2023

Market Insights 21/03/2023


The bearish trend continued in aggressive fashion yesterday to kick start the week.

UK Gas dipped below the £1/therm level for near term delivery contracts and the Dutch TTF did the same to dip below €40/MWh. UK Power also getting close to escape triple digits.

The recent price dips and favourable supply/demand outlook has helped kick start storage injections which have now recorded two consecutive days of net injection (albeit small).

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €39.33 (from €42.86) and the NBP April contract at 94.28p (from 103.97p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (332). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.75% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €39, Summer €40 (vs €39 and €44)
Curve NBP April 94p, Summer 99p (vs 104p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 97p (from 100p).
UK Power DA £101 (from £109).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £104 (£113) and Summer at £112 (£117).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €88 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.22 ($2.34) and JKM is at $13.16 ($13.18) with TTF Equiv of $12.36 ($13.41).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.