Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 March 2023

Market Insights 20/03/2023


A bearish end to the week saw markets hit some lows not seen in a while.

This comes as we are now just days away from the end of the winter season with 55% gas stocks held and temperatures expected to hold close to seasonal normal.

Europe has achieved what many thought was impossible just months ago, to get through a winter season without Russian pipeline gas. Whilst prices have spiked to unthinkable levels, causing considerable pain to consumers, this has been an incredible achievement to get to this point and see a positive market outlook – despite prices still being high compared to historic levels.

Friday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.86 (from €44.34) and the NBP April contract at 103.97p (from 109.19p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.0mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 41.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.70% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €41, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €41, Summer €44 (vs €43 and €45)
Curve NBP April 104p, Summer 109p (vs 109p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 100p (from 110p).
UK Power DA £109 (from £114).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £113 (£115) and Summer at £117 (£115).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($75) and EUAs are at €87 (€87). Henry Hub is at $2.34 ($2.51) and JKM is at $13.18 ($13.56) with TTF Equiv of $13.41 ($13.81).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.