Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 March 2023

Market Insights 17/03/2023


A small uptick in markets yesterday as the values stay relatively stable in recent weeks as we head quickly towards the end of the winter season.

Looking ahead, EU storage levels will close just slightly below their last five year average thanks to the recent cold spell, which is around two and a half times the volume held for the same time last year. This will give some level of confidence of the refill plan over the summer, but we do face the first full summer without Russian gas flows through Nord Stream AG and will rely heavily on LNG deliveries which no doubt will be maintaining some level of caution in the markets.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show a warm (above seasonal normal) end to March, save for the last few days which dip below by around one degree Celsius where it is forecast to be throughout April.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €44.34 (from €42.91) and the NBP April contract at 109.19p (from 106.30p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 55.84% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €44, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €44, Summer €45 (vs €44 and €44)
Curve NBP April 109p, Summer 113p (vs 111p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 110p (from 116p).
UK Power DA £114 (from £117).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £115 (£114) and Summer at £115 (£115).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €87 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.51 ($2.44) and JKM is at $13.56 ($12.99) with TTF Equiv of $13.81 ($13.28).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.