Market Insight
Tony Jordan
16 March 2023

Market Insights 16/03/2023


Another continued bearish session yesterday despite the French strikes, affecting LNG terminals, being announced they will continue into next week.

As expected, the Budget announced by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt yesterday confirmed the Energy Price Guarantee for households will continue at the current level of £2,500 for a further three months before the previously announced level of £3,000 takes effect from July.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.91 (from €44.19) and the NBP April contract at 106.30p (from 110.52p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (325). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €43, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €43, Summer €44 (vs €43 and €45)
Curve NBP April 111p, Summer 109p (vs 111p and 113p)
UK Gas NBP spot 116p (from 110p).
UK Power DA £117 (from £137).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £114 (£121) and Summer at £115 (£126).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($77) and EUAs are at €89 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.44 ($2.57) and JKM is at $12.99 ($14.20) with TTF Equiv of $13.28 ($13.89).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.