Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 March 2023

Market Insights 15/03/2023


A big bearish session to continue the week and has now undone the gains seen at the end of last week. We also saw a big fall in Brent and EUAs in yesterdays session.

Today is budget day in the UK and it has widely been expected that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will confirm the current level of support for households will continue at £2,500 for the next three months and not increase to £3,000 as previously announced. This morning The GuardianAlex Lawson reports that the Chancellor has confirmed this to them. However, whilst this saves exposure to a higher cost, the £400 payment received over winter will stop meaning many will still face significant increases to their bills this summer, by around 47% on an annual basis as a result … rising from £1,700 to £2,500 for the ‘typical’ annual customer consumption.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €44.19 (from €49.58) and the NBP April contract at 110.52p (from 125.08p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm from Norway (325). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.37% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €44, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €44, Summer €45 (vs €44 and €50)
Curve NBP April 111p, Summer 113p (vs 125p and 127p)
UK Gas NBP spot 110p (from 120p).
UK Power DA £137 (from £116).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £121 (£131) and Summer at £126 (£141).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($81) and EUAs are at €93 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.57 ($2.61) and JKM is at $14.20 ($14.25) with TTF Equiv of $13.89 ($15.62).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.