Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 March 2023

Market Insights 14/03/2023


A bearish end to a turbulent session yesterday, but not enough to ‘undo’ the gains seen at the end of last week.

French strikes continue, which have affected energy plant maintenance and operations at LNG terminals across the country.

Today the European Commission is expected to reveal plans to revamp the power market, aimed to limit price spikes seen over the past 18 months, by making use of long-term fixed price two-way Contracts for Difference (CfDs) and Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) from renewable generation sources. Tomorrow of course the UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will announce the budget which is also expected to have impacts on the UK energy market.

Long term temperature forecasts show a yo-yo of daily temperatures for the coming days with a warm weekend expected followed by close to seasonal normal through to late April.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €49.58 (from €52.86) and the NBP April contract at 125.08p (from 133.56p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 325mcm from Norway (336). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (36.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.5). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.50% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €47, DOWN €3 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €47, Summer €50 (vs €50 and €53)
Curve NBP April 125p, Summer 127p (vs 134p and 136p)
UK Gas NBP spot 120p (from 125p).
UK Power DA £116 (from £97).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £131 (£140) and Summer at £141 (£132).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($83) and EUAs are at €97 (€100). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.43) and JKM is at $14.25 ($14.16) with TTF Equiv of $15.62 ($16.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.