Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 March 2023

Market Insights 13/03/2023


After a bullish end to Thursdays session, Friday rallied further with gains over 20% seen across the board. It was surprising to most participants as no significant news drove the move.

Continued French strikes, EDF instructed to inspect many welds at nuclear plants together with rumours of increased buying activity of LNG across Asia appear to be the main drivers – together these appear to demonstrate the market remains as sensitive to potential upside as it was last year.

Temperature forecasts remain largely unchanged with a cold spot mid-week before returning to around or just below seasonal normal for the following weeks to end the winter season.

Friday saw the TTF April contract settle at €52.86 (from €43.60) and the NBP April contract at 133.56p (from 109.59p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm from Norway (323). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.0mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 41.5mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 56.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €52, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €52, Summer €53 (vs €53 and €44)
Curve NBP April 134p, Summer 136p (vs 110p and 112p)
UK Gas NBP spot 125p (from 126p).
UK Power DA £97 (from £116).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £140 (£117) and Summer at £132 (£121).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €100 (€98). Henry Hub is at $2.43 ($2.54) and JKM is at $14.16 ($14.31) with TTF Equiv of $16.53 ($13.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.