Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 March 2023

Market Insights 10/03/2023


Markets showed a mixed session, starting off rather calm before the bulls took hold in the final hours on the back of potential renewed LNG buying interest in Asia. This isn’t helped by further French nuclear issues and personnel strikes in the sector.

The EU Energy Chief has said that the EU should no longer buy Russian LNG once existing contracts expire. This comes as the EU also announced that Ukraine would form part of the blocs gas buying group as well as Europe agreeing to reduce energy consumption by 11.7% by 2030.

The latest temperature forecasts show, after a continued cold March, that April may be closer to seasonal normal than previously forecast.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €43.60 (from €42.34) and the NBP April contract at 109.59p (from 106.85p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 323mcm from Norway (320). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 57.54% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €48, UP €4 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €48, Summer €44 (vs €44 and €43)
Curve NBP April 110p, Summer 112p (vs 107p and 109p)
UK Gas NBP spot 126p (from 114p).
UK Power DA £116 (from £125).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £117 (£116) and Summer at £121 (£122).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €98 (€98). Henry Hub is at $2.54 ($2.55) and JKM is at $14.31 ($13.90) with TTF Equiv of $13.53 ($13.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.