Market Insight
Tony Jordan
9 March 2023

Market Insights 09/03/2023


Markets retreated from their previous days gains and showed continued long term confidence despite the short term cold temperatures.

The latest temperature forecasts suggest we may see a continuation of lower than seasonal normal levels with a second ‘dip’ around 5 degrees below normal on Saturday before it gets back to just above normal on Monday and then return to below normal from Tuesday onwards and into April. Winter isn’t quite over yet.

The Nord Stream AG story mentioned yesterday hit the mainstream news headlines with Ukraine denying any involvement in the attacks, with Russia continuing to push for an open investigation after it emerged that Germany had raided a ship in January as part of the investigation. Meanwhile Gasunie has said it has written off its 9% stake in the company.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €42.34 (from €43.37) and the NBP April contract at 106.85p (from 108.75p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 320mcm from Norway (323). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 57.78% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €41, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €41, Summer €43 (vs €42 and €43)
Curve NBP April 107p, Summer 109p (vs 109p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 114p (from 127p).
UK Power DA £125 (from £132).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £116 (£116) and Summer at £122 (£120).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($83) and EUAs are at €98 (€96). Henry Hub is at $2.55 ($2.69) and JKM is at $13.90 ($13.94) with TTF Equiv of $13.11 ($13.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.