Market Insight
Tony Jordan
8 March 2023

Market Insights 08/03/2023


With a short spell of colder temperatures arrive, the markets showed a small upside in yesterdays session, albeit limited.

After announcing an Electricity Margin Notice and potentially calling upon the Demand Flexibility Service, both were stood down whilst coal plants remained on standby.

Temperatures are expected to rise quickly in the next day or so.

After many weeks of silence, the The New York Times yesterday reported that new intelligence may point to a ‘pro-Ukrainian’ group being responsible for the attacks on Nord Stream AG. No official report has yet been released whilst Denmark, Germany and Sweden continue their investigation.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €43.37 (from €42.15) and the NBP April contract at 108.75p (from 105.66p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 323mcm from Norway (313). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 58.56% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €44, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €44, Summer €43 (vs €43 and €43)
Curve NBP April 109p, Summer 111p (vs 106p and 108p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 115p).
UK Power DA £132 (from £136).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £116 (£115) and Summer at £120 (£119).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($86) and EUAs are at €96 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.69 ($2.57) and JKM is at $13.94 ($14.29) with TTF Equiv of $13.47 ($13.22).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.