Market Insight
Tony Jordan
6 March 2023

Market Insights 06/03/2023


Markets ended the week in bearish fashion despite some cold temperatures expected this week.

Temperature forecasts show that snow is widely expected early this week in the UK. Colder average temperatures have long been expected for March – reported here many weeks ago – with a clear ‘dip’ for this week appearing more recently.

Despite the cold being forecast, healthy supply levels and EU gas stocks have given the market comfort as we head towards the end of the winter season, helping to limit any concerns unlike those we saw around this time in 2018 when the gas stock was around one-third of what it is today.

Friday saw the TTF April contract settle at €44.98 (from €46.82) and the NBP April contract at 113.18p (from 118.10p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm from Norway (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.9mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 41.5mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 59.24% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €45, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €45, Summer €46 (vs €45 and €47)
Curve NBP April 113p, Summer 115p (vs 118p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 125p (from 127p).
UK Power DA £137 (from £141).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £122 (£126) and Summer at £128 (£132).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($85) and EUAs are at €92 (€93). Henry Hub is at $3.01 ($2.77) and JKM is at $14.33 ($14.59) with TTF Equiv of $14.00 ($14.57).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.