Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 March 2023

Market Insights 03/03/2023


Markets showed a fairly level day after initially showing some upside early on in the session before retreating back to around where the day started by the close.

The latest overnight temperature forecasts show a significant cold snap to be expected on 8th March, with UK average daily temperature to hit zero degrees compared to a six degrees Celsius seasonal normal. Quickly afterwards however, it is expected to get back to just below seasonal normal.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €46.82 (from €47.08) and the NBP April contract at 118.10p (from 118.69p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 339mcm from Norway (343). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 60.62% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 12.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €46, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €46, Summer €47 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP April 118p, Summer 120p (vs 119p and 121p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 127p).
UK Power DA £141 (from £137).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £126 (£127) and Summer at £130 (£132).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €93 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.77 ($2.81) and JKM is at $14.59 ($14.58) with TTF Equiv of $14.57 ($14.75).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.