Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 March 2023

Market Insights 02/03/2023


Markets showed a slight upside in yesterdays session as traders react to the latest temperature forecasts for the weeks ahead, in which a bit of a cold spell is due early next week.

As reported yesterday, this may have an impact on how much gas is required to be purchased over the summer to refill stocks, albeit the upside movement to markets appears to be limited with a current healthy flow of LNG to provide the supply.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €47.08 (from €46.67) and the NBP April contract at 118.69p (from 115.54p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 343mcm from Norway (342). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.7mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 61.07% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €48, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €47, Summer €48 (vs €47 and €47)
Curve NBP April 119p, Summer 121p (vs 115p and 118p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 121p).
UK Power DA £137 (from £134).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £127 (£126) and Summer at £132 (£129).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €97 (€100). Henry Hub is at $2.81 ($2.75) and JKM is at $14.58 ($14.36) with TTF Equiv of $14.75 ($14.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.