Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 March 2023

Market Insights 01/03/2023


A continued bearish session yesterday to start the new front month contract yesterday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) yesterday said that gas markets could remain tight and potentially increase later in the year as Asian buying interest in LNG may increase. China have been suffering from a delayed recovery from Covid lockdowns temperatures have also been mild which have helped reduced demand. This comes off the back of Goldman Sachs recently stating it had updated its forecasts for price increases later in the year.

Latest temperature forecasts continue to show a ‘cold dip’ to be expected early next week before recovering to just below seasonal normal for the remainder of the month and into April. This will likely impact the healthy gas storages across Europe which continue to hold over 60% of capacity – still currently tracking the five year high from 2020.

Yesterday saw the TTF April contract settle at €46.67 (from €47.30) and the NBP April contract at 115.54p (from 118.19p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 342mcm from Norway (342). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 61.65% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €47, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €47, Summer €47 (vs €47 and €48)
Curve NBP April 128p, Summer 118p (vs 128p and 120p)
UK Gas NBP spot 121p (from 122p).
UK Power DA £134 (from £139).

UK power prices show the UK April Baseload contract at £126 (£133) and Summer at £129 (£134).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €100 (€100). Henry Hub is at $2.75 ($2.73) and JKM is at $14.36 ($14.97) with TTF Equiv of $14.53 ($14.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.