Market Insight
Tony Jordan
28 February 2023

Market Insights 28/02/2023


A bearish session to kick the week off and close out the March front month contract.

The latest long-term temperature runs show a slightly improved outlook for March overall compared to views late last week, but the ‘dip’ at the start of next week still expected.

Plenty of media coverage of the upcoming Ofgem Price Cap which was announced at £3,280, very close to our assessment released last week. However it is surprising to see the mainstream media concentrate on the £500 increase to the EPG rate rather than the true impact of £1,300 (or 76%) to households, as explained in our forecast.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €47.30 (from €51.01) and the NBP March contract at 118.19p (from 127.69p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 342mcm from Norway (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (35.7) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.45% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the April TTF contract at €48, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF April €48, Summer €48 (vs €47 and €52)
Curve NBP April 128p, Summer 120p (vs 116p and 128p)
UK Gas NBP spot 122p (from 135p).
UK Power DA £139 (from £141).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £133 (£138) and Summer at £134 (£136).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €100 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.73 ($2.55) and JKM is at $14.97 ($14.99) with TTF Equiv of $14.77 ($15.75).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.