Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 February 2023

Market Insights 27/02/2023


A slightly bullish session to end the week on Friday, as the colder temperatures arrive and are expected to stay for the weeks ahead.

Prices remain relatively stable overall, as they have done for several weeks now as we start to see out the final weeks of the winter delivery period. Gas storages across Europe are set to close the season higher than predictions from late 2022 where fear of having to aggressively refill them this summer caused concern. LNG flows towards Europe remain strong which will help alleviate any major concerns over refill plans.

This morning Ofgem will announce the Price Cap for the next quarterly period, effective 1st April.

Friday saw the TTF March contract settle at €51.01 (from €50.78) and the NBP March contract at 127.69p (from 126.22p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm from Norway (332). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.7mcm (35.7) and Sudzha at 41.3mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.45% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €50, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €50, Summer €52 (vs €51 and €51)
Curve NBP March 128p, Summer 128p (vs 126p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 135p (from 132p).
UK Power DA £141 (from £129).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £138 (£137) and Summer at £136 (£134).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €97 (€98). Henry Hub is at $2.55 ($2.31) and JKM is at $14.99 ($14.90) with TTF Equiv of $15.75 ($15.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.