Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 February 2023

Market Insights 24/02/2023


A balanced session overall yesterday with little movement in either direction.

Flows, temperatures and overall general outlook remain largely unchanged which provided for a lack of direction and keeps the market in its ‘holding pattern’ for now.

Today of course marks the one-year anniversary of the conflict in Ukraine, and our thoughts continue to go out to all those affected and hope that this comes to an end soon.

Yesterday afternoon we released our view on the upcoming Ofgem Price Cap, and our full report on this can be found on our website here

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €50.78 (from €50.57) and the NBP March contract at 126.22p (from 125.40p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (326). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.7mcm (35.7) and Sudzha at 41.3mcm (41.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 62.98% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €51, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €51, Summer €51 (vs €51 and €51)
Curve NBP March 126p, Summer 126p (vs 125p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 132p (from 126p).
UK Power DA £129 (from £134).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £137 (£135) and Summer at £134 (£134).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($81) and EUAs are at €98 (€97). Henry Hub is at $2.31 ($2.17) and JKM is at $14.90 ($14.84) with TTF Equiv of $15.75 ($15.75).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.