Market Insight
Tony Jordan
23 February 2023

Market Insights 23/02/2023


A bullish session was seen yesterday as markets continue to stay in their ‘holding pattern’ seen of late.

The latest long term temperature forecast shows a ‘dip’ to be expected around 7th March, with temperatures from today getting to and staying below seasonal normal until into early April. We’ll keep a close eye on this developing.

Whilst EU gas storage retains ‘healthy’ levels for this time of year, it was around this time in 2018 a similar cold snap deviated the withdrawal curve away from the following the pattern of previous years to reach new lows. It is very unlikely we’ll get to those lows this year, but any deviation away from the 2020 trendline we are currently following would mean a greater refilling plan for this summer in readiness for next winter.

We shall, later today, release our final price cap forecast effective 1st April 2023 – however it is likely to be overshadowed by the continued EPG scheme which will remain in place and protect consumers from the price cap for the upcoming period.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €50.57 (from €48.54) and the NBP March contract at 125.40p (from 120.06p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 326mcm from Norway (342). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.7mcm (36.5) and Sudzha at 41.3mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 63.44% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 9.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €49, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €49, Summer €51 (vs €51 and €49)
Curve NBP March 125p, Summer 126p (vs 120p and 122p)
UK Gas NBP spot 126p (from 126p).
UK Power DA £134 (from £135).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £135 (£135) and Summer at £134 (£134).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($83) and EUAs are at €97 (€100). Henry Hub is at $2.17 ($2.07) and JKM is at $14.84 ($14.30) with TTF Equiv of $15.75 ($15.17).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.