Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 February 2023

Market Insights 22/02/2023


A bearish session once again followed Mondays bullish start to the week, but this time some new interesting values seen in certain contracts.

EUAs breached the €100 marker after coming close several times recently and Henry Hub dipped below $2 for the first time in around two and a half years.

Following numerous reports of activity in recent weeks, Freeport LNG made a formal statement (the first in two months) to confirm it had received regulatory approval to commence commercial operations.

Yesterday saw Russian President Vladimir Putin made his address to the nation in a near two hour speech which was later followed by US President Joe Biden who visited Ukraine earlier this week and is currently in Poland. Whilst tensions remain high over potential escalation of the conflict in the coming days, markets did not react.

As noted in previous morning reports, the temperatures are expected to drop tomorrow and remain below seasonal normal for several weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €48.54 (from €49.87) and the NBP March contract at 120.06p (from 123.90p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 342mcm from Norway (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.5mcm (34.7) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (40.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 63.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €49, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €49, Summer €49 (vs €49 and €51)
Curve NBP March 120p, Summer 122p (vs 124p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 126p (from 127p).
UK Power DA £135 (from £134).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £135 (£136) and Summer at £134 (£137).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €100 (€98). Henry Hub is at $2.07 ($2.28) and JKM is at $14.30 ($15.92) with TTF Equiv of $15.17 ($15.63).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.