Market Insight
Tony Jordan
21 February 2023

Market Insights 21/02/2023


A mixed day yesterday showed a bullish start to the session before retreating back later in the day.

EUAs hit a record level of €99.99 before retreating slightly yesterday as markets overall showed an upward trend until later in the session where they returned close to the open.

Russian flows increased towards Europe yesterday compared to the previous week, and show slightly further increases again this morning.

The latest long term temperature forecasts continue to show a fall from Thursday of this week and remaining below seasonal normal through to the end of March.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €49.87 (from €49.05) and the NBP March contract at 123.90p (from 120.96p).

Kollsnes goes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 339mcm from Norway (339). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 34.7mcm (33.5) and Sudzha at 40.3mcm (39.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 63.95% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €50, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €50, Summer €51 (vs €50 and €51)
Curve NBP March 124p, Summer 126p (vs 121p and 126p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 123p).
UK Power DA £134 (from £111).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £136 (£139) and Summer at £137 (£133).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €98 (€96). Henry Hub is at $2.28 ($2.28) and JKM is at $15.92 ($15.92) with TTF Equiv of $15.63 ($15.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.