Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 February 2023

Market Insights 17/02/2023


A bearish session yesterday, removing the gains seen from Wednesdays session, once again maintaining an area of comfort the market seems to have found of late.

A warm week ahead is expected before dipping below seasonal normal as we close out February, and the latest long-term view is a below seasonal March.

As expected, lots of media focus around the Centrica profit announcement. However, as mentioned by us yesterday, it is not the British Gas (customer business) that makes this money but the groups other companies that include upstream and wholesale optimisation activities with the former being a heavily regulated business.

Speaking of which, today closes the April-June price cap calculation, with Ofgem making the formal announcement later this month. However, as previously noted, it will still likely be just above the governments Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) level of £3,000 meaning it will just set the amount suppliers will need to claim from the government for customers. (£3k is the typical annual value, not a specific amount!).

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €52.01 (from €54.72) and the NBP March contract at 129.51p (from 137.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 314mcm from Norway (327). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 30.1mcm (30.1) and Sudzha at 35.8mcm (35.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 64.81% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €52, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €51, Summer €53 (vs €52 and €55)
Curve NBP March 130p, Summer 133p (vs 137p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 129p (from 138p).
UK Power DA £118 (from £141).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £138 (£143) and Summer at £141 (£146).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €98 (€94). Henry Hub is at $2.39 ($2.47) and JKM is at $16.30 ($15.61) with TTF Equiv of $16.30 ($17.14).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.