Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 February 2023

Market Insights 15/02/2023


A fairly level day yesterday with little movement in either direction on the lack of any significant influential news.

National Grid last night confirmed the Capacity Market auctions for 2023/24 cleared at £60/kwh/year, down from last years high of £75, procuring 5.78GW.

Attention around the upcoming Ofgem price cap announcement, effective 1st April, will likely become focal in the coming days as the next quarterly calculation period ends on Friday. With the increase in the government support scheme to £3,000 (from £2,500), we predict the price cap at just under £3,200. We then see the future periods drop to around £2,000 from July onwards – based on current market levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €52.39 (from €51.71) and the NBP March contract at 129.59p (from 128.94p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (334). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 30.1mcm (25.2) and Sudzha at 35.8mcm (30.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 65.66% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 6.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €53, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €53, Summer €53 (vs €52 and €53)
Curve NBP March 130p, Summer 132p (vs 129p and 133p)
UK Gas NBP spot 133p (from 127p).
UK Power DA £134 (from £141).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £139 (£136) and Summer at £140 (£139).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($87) and EUAs are at €92 (€92). Henry Hub is at $2.57 ($2.41) and JKM is at $17.89 ($17.90) with TTF Equiv of $16.46 ($16.26).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.