Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 February 2023

Market Insights 14/02/2023


A bearish session to start the week as temperatures for the rest of February are expected to stay above seasonal normal, negating the need for aggressive storage usage which remain two-thirds full – a long term high for this time of year.

China National Petroleum Corporation is rumoured to have signed a huge LNG deal with QatarEnergy, said to be similar to the one signed with Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation just months ago where some 4 million tonnes of LNG would be supplied annually for nearly 30 years. Having two such large deals may help China with long term energy security and potentially free up US export competition for the benefit of Europe.

This comes as Europe races to increase LNG import capacity following the cessation of dominant Russian flows. Gate terminal B.V. in the Netherlands is expected to restart send outs today after a two-week operational shut down. Meanwhile Freeport LNG in Texas has commenced flaring and exports expected to restart imminently.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €51.71 (from €53.95) and the NBP March contract at 128.94p (from 134.51p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 334mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 25.2mcm (25.2) and Sudzha at 30.8mcm (30.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 66.13% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €52, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €52, Summer €53 (vs €52 and €56)
Curve NBP March 129p, Summer 133p (vs 135p and 138p)
UK Gas NBP spot 127p (from 132p).
UK Power DA £141 (from £145).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £136 (£140) and Summer at £139 (£144).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €92 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.41 ($2.51) and JKM is at $17.90 ($17.99) with TTF Equiv of $16.26 ($16.64).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.