Market Insight
Tony Jordan
13 February 2023

Market Insights 13/02/2023


The market closed in bullish mode on Friday, but once again retained its recent trading envelope which has been maintained for 2023 so far.

This comes as the colder temperatures pass and warmer than seasonal normal levels are expected for the next ten days or so before dipping below the seasonal normal trend once again. The gas storge levels in recent days have reduced by a few percentage points which may have had an impact on market confidence but may hold steady in the coming days with those increased temperatures. The Norwegian gas field outages appear to have been resolved which will also help.

Meanwhile ships have started to wait for potential export activity at Freeport LNG as it now seeks to empty the storage tanks in readiness for new production.

Friday saw the TTF March contract settle at €53.95 (from €52.73) and the NBP March contract at 134.51p (from 131.53p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm from Norway (318). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 25.2mcm (25.2) and Sudzha at 30.8mcm (30.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 65.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 8.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €52, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €52, Summer €56 (vs €54and €55)
Curve NBP March 135p, Summer 138p (vs 132p and 137p)
UK Gas NBP spot 132p (from 135p).
UK Power DA £145 (from £140).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £140 (£137) and Summer at £144 (£144).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($85) and EUAs are at €93 (€91). Henry Hub is at $2.51 ($2.43) and JKM is at $17.99 ($17.92) with TTF Equiv of $16.64 ($16.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.