Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 February 2023

Market Insights 10/02/2023


Further downward movement from yesterdays session, albeit rather small, to stay within and around the envelope we’ve seen these past few weeks.

LNG prices for Europe appear to have found their way under the Asian marker which should help with continued cargoes heading this way. This comes as Freeport LNG is expected to commence exports in the near future.

The Kremlin have been vocal on the story relating to the blog accusing US involvement in the Nord Stream AG attacks, calling for punishment to those involved as well as considering legal action. The Swedish investigation into the event is yet to announce its findings.

The latest long term temperature forecast shows a warm spell in the coming days, but then another cold dip in the final week of February. March remains forecast to be cold, particularly towards the second half (compared to seasonal normal).

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €52.73 (from €53.69) and the NBP March contract at 131.53p (from 134.61p).

Aasta Hansteen returns but Troll goes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 318mcm from Norway (336). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 25.2mcm (25.2) and Sudzha at 30.8mcm (30.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 68.16% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €54, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €54, Summer €55 (vs €53 and €56)
Curve NBP March 132p, Summer 137p (vs 135p and 140p)
UK Gas NBP spot 135p (from 136p).
UK Power DA £140 (from £145).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £137 (£140) and Summer at £144 (£145).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €91 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.43 ($2.40) and JKM is at $17.92 ($17.93) with TTF Equiv of $16.64 ($16.91).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.