Market Insight
Tony Jordan
9 February 2023

Market Insights 09/02/2023


Further downward movement from yesterdays session.

With colder weather passing, and a warmer than seasonal normal rest of February expected, strong LNG output with Freeport LNG expected to restart any time soon and healthy European gas stocks – the market taking the opportunity to show some confidence in the outlook.

Gas storages are holding the same pattern seen in 2020 and matching the five year high. In that year the low at the end of March was around 55%, whereas last March we got to as low as 20%.

Yesterday US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh posted a blog pointing the finger at US involvement in the attacks on Nord Stream AGThe White House quickly dismissed the accusation and Russia called for an international investigation to take place.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €53.69 (from €55.40) and the NBP March contract at 134.61p (from 140.04p).

Aasta Hansteen remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm from Norway (331). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 25.2mcm (25.2) and Sudzha at 30.8mcm (30.8). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 68.82% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 10.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €54, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €54, Summer €56 (vs €54 and €57)
Curve NBP March 135p, Summer 140p (vs 140p and 145p)
UK Gas NBP spot 136p (from 144p).
UK Power DA £145 (from £146).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £140 (£147) and Summer at £145 (£147).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €90 (€90). Henry Hub is at $2.40 ($2.58) and JKM is at $17.93 ($18.19) with TTF Equiv of $16.91 ($18.28).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.