Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 February 2023

Market Insights 07/02/2023


Markets held relatively steady yesterday with just a small (mostly downward) movement showing on most near-term contracts with slightly larger moves along the curve.

National Grid ESO looked at a third live DFS session for today which was not called for in the end, as well as standing down the two coal plants it had put on standby, to help manage the short-term cold spell. Current weather forecasts continue to suggest this will pass in the coming days and return to above seasonal normal into next week and remain there for the rest of the month.

bp records annual profits of $28bn and joins Shell with recording record profits for the past year.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €58.11 (from €57.89) and the NBP March contract at 146.98p (from 147.89p).

Aasta Hansteen remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 332mcm from Norway (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 23.6mcm (23.6) and Sudzha at 29.3mcm (29.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 70.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 7.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €57, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €57, Summer €60 (vs €58 and €60)
Curve NBP March 147p, Summer 151p (vs 148p and 154p)
UK Gas NBP spot 147p (from 174p).
UK Power DA £171 (from £157).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £148 (£152) and Summer at £153 (£155).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($80) and EUAs are at €91 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.46 ($2.41) and JKM is at $18.50 ($18.53) with TTF Equiv of $18.28 ($18.41).

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