Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 February 2023

Market Insights 02/02/2023


A bullish session was seen yesterday as weather forecasts showed a dip in the previous views for February and into early March, allowing some concern to creep in that we may see some colder temperatures towards the end of the winter season.

The US Henry Hub is now at its lowest value for two years, whilst EUAs seek to test a high of €100. We also now see the TTF dollar value rise above the JKM in the LNG market for the first time in a while. These could all be pivotal points for the markets to manage in the coming days and weeks.

In other news, Shell has announced annual profits, after a strong Q4 of $9.8bn, of $40bn for 2022. This beats the previous record of $31bn in 2008.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €59.53 (from €57.35) and the NBP March contract at 152.07p (from 145.51p).

Kollsnes remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 327mcm from Norway (323). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 23.7mcm (23.7) and Sudzha at 29.3mcm (29.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 72.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €59, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €59, Summer €62 (vs €60 and €59)
Curve NBP March 152p, Summer 157p (vs 146p and 149p)
UK Gas NBP spot 162p (from 150p).
UK Power DA £123 (from £123).

UK power prices show the UK March Baseload contract at £151 (£147) and Summer at £155 (£151).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($85) and EUAs are at €95 (€93). Henry Hub is at $2.47 ($2.68) and JKM is at $18.97 ($19.03) with TTF Equiv of $19.08 ($18.28).

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