Market Insight
Tony Jordan
31 January 2023

Market Insights 31/01/2023


The March contracts now start to become our new front month as we come to the end of January. We’ve seen a rather bearish month with the market holding steading in the second half of the month.

The European Commission has appointed Prisma to manage its ‘joint buying’ scheme, whereby European countries will club together in order to purchase gas.

The DFS test yesterday morning was added to with an additional test being run this evening.

The latest weather runs show a warm February to be expected, compared to seasonal normal, giving further comfort as we look ahead to the end of the winter season with strong gas stocks across Europe.

Yesterday saw the TTF March contract settle at €55.12 (from €55.46) and the NBP March contract at 139.40p (from 140.46p).

Asta Hansteen joins Kollsness on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 323mcm from Norway (320). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 18.6mcm (18.6) and Sudzha at 24.2mcm (24.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 73.23% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the March TTF contract at €59, UP €4 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF March €59, Summer €57 (vs €55 and €57)
Curve NBP March 139p, Summer 143p (vs 140p and 143p)
UK Gas NBP spot 144p (from 140p).
UK Power DA £113 (from £127).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £144 (£139) and Summer at £143 (£143).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($87) and EUAs are at €90 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.68 ($2.85) and JKM is at $19.49 ($19.50) with TTF Equiv of $17.56 ($17.64).

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