Market Insight
Tony Jordan
30 January 2023

Market Insights 30/01/2023


It wasn’t quite a clean sweep of bearish sessions last week after Friday session initially gave us some hope before turning later in the afternoon to close just slightly up on the previous day.

The most notable story from Friday was the confirmation of ICE planning to open a London base for its European energy markets in order to avoid the European price cap, something it quickly announced it would do upon the European plans being made public.

In other news, Macquarie Group has sold it’s near quarter share in OGE, the German pipeline operator to Fluxys.

After running two live DFS events early last week, National Grid ESO are running a test event this morning for an hour at 9am. This would be the second test event in the morning, the last one being on 19th January. All over events have been in the late afternoon peak time.

Friday saw the TTF February contract settle at €55.43 (from €54.82) and the NBP February contract at 140.89p (from 139.22p).

Kollsnes is on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 320mcm from Norway (311). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 18.6mcm (18.6) and Sudzha at 24.2mcm (24.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 72.46% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 11.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €54, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €54, Summer €57 (vs €55 and €57)
Curve NBP February 141p, Summer 143p (vs 139p and 143p)
UK Gas NBP spot 140p (from 145p).
UK Power DA £127 (from £158).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £139 (£138) and Summer at £143 (£142).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($87) and EUAs are at €89 (€89). Henry Hub is at $2.85 ($2.94) and JKM is at $19.50 ($20.17) with TTF Equiv of $17.64 ($17.46).

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