Market Insight
Tony Jordan
27 January 2023

Market Insights 27/01/2023


Another bearish session enjoyed yesterday as warmer temperatures are expected to see out January and welcome February over the coming days. Another bearish session today would have seen the whole week enjoy some downside, something not seen for some time.

We saw the US Henry Hub also dip below the $3 mark for the first time in a while. Also in the US, Freeport LNG was given approval to restart the plant but is yet to seek permission to restart the liquification trains that will see LNG exports once again, with expectations this could not be until some point in March.

Shell Energy gave a surprising update yesterday that it is considering exiting its UK, Dutch and German domestic energy businesses, after having had £1.2bn injected last year. The UK arm of the business has around 1.4 million customers having picked up five of the many failures in late 2021.

Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €54.82 (from €56.66) and the NBP February contract at 139.22p (from 143.23p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 311mcm from Norway (314). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 18.6mcm (18.8) and Sudzha at 24.2mcm (24.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 74.81% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 13.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €53, DOWN €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €53, Summer €57 (vs €55 and €58)
Curve NBP February 139p, Summer 143p (vs 143p and 148p)
UK Gas NBP spot 145p (from 147p).
UK Power DA £158 (from £147).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £138 (£137) and Summer at £142 (£142).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €89 (€84). Henry Hub is at $2.94 ($3.07) and JKM is at $20.17 ($20.9) with TTF Equiv of $17.46 ($18.11).

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