Market Insight
Tony Jordan
26 January 2023

Market Insights 26/01/2023


Markets continued their bearish direction for the third day this week in yesterdays session as the weather and supply outlook continues to give the market a level of comfort for the weeks ahead.

After the DFS was activated earlier in the week by National Grid ESO, last night system balancing prices were raised with several generation assets bidding into the system being accepted. Overnight several coal assets have once again been put on standby for today, with one being stood down in the early hours.

Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €56.66 (from €58.27) and the NBP February contract at 143.23p (from 147.66p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 314mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 18.8mcm (18.7) and Sudzha at 24.2mcm (24.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 76.35% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 15.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €58, UP €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €58, Summer €58 (vs €57 and €60)
Curve NBP February 143p, Summer 148p (vs 148p and 153p)
UK Gas NBP spot 147p (from 135p).
UK Power DA £147 (from £156).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £137 (£145) and Summer at £142 (£148).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($86) and EUAs are at €84 (€82). Henry Hub is at $3.07 ($3.26) and JKM is at $20.94 ($22.12) with TTF Equiv of $18.11 ($18.58).

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