Market Insight
Tony Jordan
25 January 2023

Market Insights 25/01/2023


A continuation of the bearish sentiment was seen across the board yesterday, pushing the levels to new lows not seen for a while to be tested.

Temperatures are expected to return to seasonal normal from today and hold at or above them for the weeks ahead. This will boost comfort in the overall gas system balance with a healthy EU storage level, queue of LNG tankers expected and Freeport LNG hoping to come back online soon.

Germanys target to replace Russian gas with LNG is hoped to be achieved by 2026 according to reports, as they push ahead with temporary LNG terminals in the short term to cure the immediate loss and appear to have a plan to make this permanent into the not so distant future.

Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €58.27 (from €66.00) and the NBP February contract at 147.66p (from 166.72p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm from Norway (321). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 18.7mcm (19.1) and Sudzha at 24.4mcm (24.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable.  Gas storage showing at 77.06% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €57, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €57, Summer €60 (vs €58 and €68)
Curve NBP February 148p, Summer 153p (vs 167p and 171p)
UK Gas NBP spot 135p (from 162p).
UK Power DA £156 (from £178).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £145 (£156) and Summer at £148 (£158).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($88) and EUAs are at €82 (€85). Henry Hub is at $3.26 ($3.45) and JKM is at $22.12 ($23.26) with TTF Equiv of $18.58 ($21.02).

Please be sure to quote the hashtag #auxilione if using any of our selected content or use the ‘repost’ option to ensure Auxilione is shown as the source. Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.