Market Insight
Tony Jordan
24 January 2023

Market Insights 24/01/2023

Yesterday saw the market start the week in bearish fashion once again …. Undoing the rise seen on Friday.

It was also a day of media excitement surrounding National Grid ESOs Demand Flexibility Scheme (DFS) which operated last night for real following a series of test runs late last year. It also runs for 90 minutes this evening. This scheme allows households with a smart meter who are with selected suppliers (and signed up to the scheme) to be paid £3/kwh (£3,000/MWh) for not using energy for a period of time. With the ‘average’ household using 2,900 kwh per year this is just 0.33kwh for an hour (flat across the year). Of course this scheme targets peak usage hours. Whilst it is claimed £100 could be enjoyed by participants this winter, it is likely to be a much lower value in reality. The targeted volume was met mostly by Octopus Energy who have the largest number of customers eligible for the scheme. They bid an average of £4,500/MWh into last nights session whilst increasing to £5,333 tonight. EDF (UK) and OVO bid £6,000 and £3,000 respectively across both sessions. The overall scheme bids ranged from £2,799 to £6,500/MWh across the two sessions.

Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €66.00 (from €66.90) and the NBP February contract at 166.72p (from 172.60p).

Oseberg and Visund are on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 321mcm from Norway (304). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 19.1mcm (19.4) and Sudzha at 24.4mcm (24.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 77.81% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €59, DOWN €7 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €59, Summer €68 (vs €66 and €68)
Curve NBP February 167p, Summer 171p (vs 173p and 173p)
UK Gas NBP spot 162p (from 194p).
UK Power DA £178 (from £188).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £156 (£156) and Summer at £158 (£159).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($88) and EUAs are at €85 (€85). Henry Hub is at $3.45 ($3.17) and JKM is at $23.26 ($22.82) with TTF Equiv of $21.02 ($21.26).

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