Market Insight
Tony Jordan
23 January 2023

Market Insights 23/01/2023

The first ‘aggressive’ upwards move of the year so far was seen on Friday as prices regained the losses enjoyed over the course of the week. This was mostly caused by revised downward temperature forecasts, despite EU gas storages still holding impressive levels for this time of year.

So far this month the market appears to have found a new range to settle in. It is considerably less volatile than previously seen and will be a very welcome sight to the majority of the market. UK temperatures are now expected to rise and stay just above seasonal normal for the coming couple of weeks which may help keep markets in the new ‘zone’ it has found for this weeks session.    

On Friday Germany saw its third floating LNG terminal arrive as well as the countrys subsidiary of Nord Stream 2 AG wound up as it pushes ahead with life without Russian pipeline gas.

Friday saw the TTF February contract settle at €66.90 (from €60.72) and the NBP February contract at 172.60p (from 152.52p).

Oseberg is on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 304mcm from Norway (324). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 19.4mcm (19.4) and Sudzha at 24.4mcm (24.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 78.35% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 14.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €67, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €67, Summer €68 (vs €67 and €63)
Curve NBP February 173p, Summer 173p (vs 153p and 157p)
UK Gas NBP spot 194p (from 155p).
UK Power DA £188 (from £163).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £156 (£158) and Summer at £159 (£154).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $88 ($86) and EUAs are at €85 (€84). Henry Hub is at $3.17 ($3.28) and JKM is at $22.82 ($22.95) with TTF Equiv of $21.26 ($19.24).

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