Prices showed some upside yesterday, but not enough to rise beyond Mondays bearish session.
No major news to drive the sentiment, perhaps a floor being tested in the market – which is largely expected. Europe now sits rather comfortable in its rest of winter outlook compared to the ‘what if’ scenarios from a couple of months ago.
Temperatures, having taken a dip in recent days, are expected to get back to seasonal normal at the weekend and stay there throughout February. This will give a further confidence boost to the months ahead whereby storage levels (still above 80%) will have less to be refilled during the summer months – which was previously a major concern for next winter.
Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €60.06 (from €55.45) and the NBP February contract at 150.74p (from 136.76p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 320mcm from Norway (330). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 26.9mcm (27.2) and Sudzha at 32.5mcm (32.8). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 81.07% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 17.
This morning we see the February TTF contract at €59, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €59, Summer €62 (vs €60 and €58)
Curve NBP February 151p, Summer 156p (vs 137p and 145p)
UK Gas NBP spot 159p (from 152p).
UK Power DA £138 (from £157).
UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £156 (£142) and Summer at £149 (£144).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($84) and EUAs are at €80 (€78). Henry Hub is at $3.59 ($3.42) and JKM is at $22.73 ($20.17).
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