Markets have enjoyed a break of their own in recent weeks with a much softer start to the year thanks to warmer weather helping gas stocks to stay strong as we enter the second half of winter.
We’ve also been busy putting together a new brand identity (as you’ll see from our LinkedIn page) but later this week we’ll follow that up with a new look website.
So markets were just below €100 went we last reported, and now they are heading lower still. The gas stocks are still at 83% which is where we left them some weeks ago. Russian gas flows through Ukraine are lower, due to new contractual year levels and also the dip in European market prices.
The UK is due to announce its business energy support package effective from April today, widely expected to be a weaker level than currently in place. This follows the domestic support package that will increase from £2,500 to £3,000 before it kicks in from the same period. However our latest Ofgem price cap forecasts show the April cap is expected to land somewhere around £3,500 before dipping to around £2,500 for the rest of the year at current market levels – meaning the Government will only need to continue support for Q2 of its 12 month plan.
Friday saw the TTF February contract settle at €71.75 (from €69.63) and the NBP February contract at 170.00p (from 182.73p).
No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 29.8mcm (29.7) and Sudzha at 35.4mcm (35.5). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 83.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 19.
This morning we see the February TTF contract at €73, UP €3 to the previous settlement.
A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €73, Summer €73 (vs €70 and €75)
Curve NBP February 170p, Summer 184p (vs 183p and 189p)
UK Gas NBP spot 180p (from 169p).
UK Power DA £121 (from £128).
UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £179 (£173) and Summer at £178 (£172).
In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($79) and EUAs are at €77 (€77). Henry Hub is at $3.71 ($3.72) and JKM is at $28.45 ($29).