Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 January 2023

Market Insights 03/01/2023

Markets have been rather buoyant this week, holding steady with relatively small up/down movements each day.

Yesterday the IFA1 power interconnector with France suffered a morning outage and a second one late afternoon.

Meanwhile Russia have voiced concern over Swedens lack of engagement with them over the investigation into the Nord Stream AG pipeline attacks last September, with Russia stating they feel Sweden must “have something to hide”. No party has claimed responsibility to date, nor has any formal accusation been made whilst investigations gather evidence.

Yesterday saw the TTF February contract settle at €66.81 (from €65.35) and the NBP February contract at 167.42p (from 160.63p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm from Norway (338). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 29.8mcm (29.8) and Sudzha at 35.4mcm (35.4). Flows on Nord Stream are now a likely physical impossibility. Gas storage showing at 82.33% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 18.

This morning we see the February TTF contract at €69, UP €2 to the previous settlement. 

A quick check on some key contracts:
Curve TTF February €69, Summer €70 (vs €67 and €69)
Curve NBP February 167p, Summer 175p (vs 161p and 171p)
UK Gas NBP spot 180p (from 158p).
UK Power DA £100 (from £99).

UK power prices show the UK February Baseload contract at £168 (£162) and Summer at £164 (£163).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €80 (€79). Henry Hub is at $3.70 ($3.67) and JKM is at $26.76 ($26.87).